Berliner Tageblatt - More Lula, or back to the Bolsonaros? Brazil votes in cliffhanger

It is the final electoral battle for Lula, who turns 81 next week and is hoping to pull off a dramatic turnaround after a shock second-place finish in the first round to the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Final polls showed the two candidates neck-and-neck.

Sunday's runoff will determine whether Brazil remains one of Latin America's few leftist nations or joins a regional swing to the right championed by US President Donald Trump, who has not openly endorsed the son of his ally.

Lula, who is seeking a fourth term in office overall, has pitched himself as a bulwark against US interference and democratic backsliding and promised to expand social protections.

Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, has vowed to crack down on crime and slash government spending, while handing Brazil to "the Lord Jesus Christ," with a message of change that won over Brazilians looking for something new.

"Enough is enough. We've had 16 years of this administration, and it's clear it didn't work. It's time for a change," said Joao Paulo, 37, at a rally in Belo Horizonte, referring roughly to the total period Lula's Workers' Party (PT) has governed Brazil.

Flavio Bolsonaro has pitched himself as more moderate than his firebrand father, who is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest for an attempted coup bid after his 2022 election loss.

He has vowed that if elected, his first act will be to free Jair Bolsonaro, a deeply divisive figure in Brazil whose legacy loomed large over the campaign of his eldest son.

After the first-round defeat, the left swung into action with massive rallies declaring "Never Again Bolsonaro," where protesters recalled the former president's chaotic handling of the Covid pandemic, devastation of the Amazon rainforest, and cuts to public programs.

Deforestation of the world's largest rainforest has hit its lowest level in four decades under Lula.

Yet, as the El Nino weather phenomenon fueled fires that have choked Amazonian cities with smoke in recent weeks, climate change barely featured in the campaign.

- 'Lula's army' fights back -

Lula, revered for social welfare programs that lifted millions out of poverty, made a dramatic comeback to office in 2022 elections after a massive corruption scandal that saw him jailed for over 18 months.

The charges, thrown out on procedural grounds, have continued to haunt him.

In his third term he has overseen a drop in inflation and unemployment, and lifted millions out of hunger, but voters complain about a high cost of living and are fed up with crime.

Lula's famed social policies became a point of tension, as he expanded welfare programs during the campaign, while critics want the government to rein in spending.

"Even if people call it handouts, for us they were an enormous help. Because anyone who has ever gone hungry knows not to take these programs for granted," said Walter dos Santos, 56, who lives in northeastern Brazil, a bastion of support for the president, who hails from the same region.

- The day after -

After his first-round blow, Lula revamped his social media strategy, turning to video selfies and even buying his first cellphone.

A fierce social media battle drew in Meta, parent company of WhatsApp, Facebook and Instagram, which Lula's campaign accused of favoring his opponent with "algorithmic manipulation."

Meta has denied this, but acknowledged that some of Lula's campaign ads had been mistakenly deactivated due to technical errors.

Whoever wins, Brazil is facing a bruising aftermath to the election.

"If the left wins, it faces four years with a hostile Congress and threats of impeachment," said political analyst Thomas Traumann, referring to sweeping legislative gains by the right.

"If the far right wins, it will be a government of retribution, directed at the Supreme Court," hated by the right after its conviction of Jair Bolsonaro over the attempted coup.

Flavio Bolsonaro has said he will seek the impeachment of Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes, who led the case against his father.

H.Seidel--BTB