Berliner Tageblatt - US Fed makes aggressive rate cut, weeks before election

The Fed's decision will affect the rates at which commercial banks lend to consumers and businesses, bringing down the cost of borrowing on everything from mortgages to credit cards.

The news will likely be well-received by Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who has looked to highlight President Joe Biden's economic record in her race against Republican Donald Trump.

Policymakers voted 11-to-1 in favor of lowering the central bank's benchmark rate to between 4.75 percent and 5.00 percent, the Fed announced in a statement.

The key holdout was Fed governor Michelle Bowman, who supported a more conventional quarter-point cut.

"It is time to recalibrate our policy to something that is more appropriate given the progress on inflation, and on employment moving to a more sustainable level," Fed Chair Powell told reporters after the decision was announced.

"This is the beginning of that process," he added.

- Fed 'gained greater confidence' -

The Fed said its rate-setting committee "has gained greater confidence" that inflation was moving toward its long-term two percent target.

It added that "the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance."

The bank has a dual mandate from Congress to act independently to tackle both inflation and employment.

Analysts were expecting the Fed to cut rates on Wednesday, as inflation eases, and the labor market continues to cool in the surprisingly resilient post-Covid economy.

But they were highly uncertain about the size of the move, with some anticipating a quarter of a percentage point, and others predicting the more significant half-point cut, which carries a greater risk of reigniting inflation.

In updated forecasts published alongside the Fed's rate decision, policymakers' median forecasts pointed to an unemployment rate of 4.4 percent, on average, in the fourth quarter of this year, up from 4.0 percent in the last update in June.

They also penciled in an annual headline inflation rate of 2.3 percent, slightly lower than in June.

The decision to cut more sharply to begin with caught some analysts by surprise.

"In our base case the Fed cuts 25bp (basis points) but signals 100bp of cuts this year with the median 2024 'dot'", economists at Citi wrote in an investor note published ahead of the rate decision.

- Election stakes -

The Fed's mandate gives it the independence to set monetary policy solely on the basis of economic data.

But its decision will have political ramifications, given the importance of inflation and the cost of living to US consumers.

Americans have consistently said both are top concerns ahead of the election.

Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell, who he first appointed to run the Fed, and has suggested that its decisions are political -- accusations the US central bank has strongly refuted.

D.Schneider--BTB