Berliner Tageblatt - Hongqiao Forum Report Projects US$3 Trillion Trade Gain by 2050

The 9th Hongqiao International Economic Forum opened in Shanghai on Tuesday, drawing officials, economists, and business leaders who called for smoother trade to rebalance the global economy moving toward 2050. The event is being held concurrently with the 9th China International Import Expo.

Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang attended the opening ceremony and delivered a keynote speech at the forum. During an afternoon sub-forum, the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China released a report titled "Global Trade Towards 2050: Economic Rebalancing, National Reopening and Rules Reshaping."

The report projected that deeper multilateral cooperation could add approximately US$3 trillion to global output by 2050 and lift global exports to about 1.18 times the baseline level. It further estimated that joint progress in clean energy and fair industrial development could create about 152 million additional manufacturing jobs in developing economies and help approximately 525 million people rise above the poverty line of US$8.30 a day.

The document outlined ten areas for joint progress and five proposals, urging economies to uphold multilateral trade rules, update regulations for digital and green trade, and give developing economies a larger role in rule-making. It also projected cumulative investment needs of US$29 trillion for power grids and US$41.7 trillion for renewable power by 2050.

Economist Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University addressed the forum's broader context, stating that the world is undergoing "the deepest and most profound rebalancing that is taking place in our time." He noted that Asia is returning to the center of the world economy after approximately 200 years of Western dominance. Sachs hailed China as a global leader in solar, wind, batteries, and electric vehicles, suggesting that the country should move up its 2060 carbon-neutrality goal to 2050.

Business leaders also highlighted the benefits of global scale combined with local agility. Hanneke Faber, chief executive of Swiss technology firm Logitech, cited innovation contributions from the company's China team as a key example. She noted that China now accounts for about a third of Logitech's global workforce and is its second-largest market. Faber added that the company is applying to open a seventh global innovation center in Shanghai, near its manufacturing hub in Suzhou, Jiangsu Province.

The sub-forum, titled "Global Economic Rebalancing: Smoother Trade, Industrial Cooperation and Inclusive Development," was hosted by the Ministry of Commerce and the International Trade Centre, and co-organized by Renmin University of China.

L.Janezki--BTB